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Crash
Sitemap Crash (economic events in Rapture) * See also AE Bankruptcy one of the effects of the mid-history economic event * See also Rapture_Economy The economic downturn partway through Raptures history Likely happened around 1952 (end of major Construction, end of contact with the Surface, end of influx new immigrants, AE going out of business) --- --- --- --- --- Rapture Bank Run/Crash - WHICH ONE ? (if any) : Posit an Earlier Economic Crash (with a "Bank Run" ...) : When Primary City Construction ceased, the City was isolated (1952 ?), the Atlantic Express shut down/bankrupted, "Hooverville" at 'Paupers Drop' with destitute unemployed people, Sinclair opportunistically building cheaper housing ... Something like this HAD to have happened EARLY(er) (and then be recovered from - by what we are shown/hear by 1958). Contrast that to the events which happened starting with the Kashmir Incident : 'McDonagh (Audio Diary) 'Fontaines_Legacy' : "Strikes me that Fontaine wasn't overly inconvenienced by his own demise. On New Year's Eve, his wretched Splicers came streaming out of the poor houses and stormed the proverbial barricades! The dead rot in the streets, and Johnny and Janey Citizen are lined up round the block for Plasmids... anything to help fend off the rabble." Hardly sounds like an environment where a 'Bank Run' has much relevancy any more. (Note - 'poor houses', but then, mooching is always easier to some than looking for a job. Note - Potential effects of ADAM-debilitation causing so many welfare cases.) - "Evil" Sinclair's Hotel was built when ? - If money has little/no value (civil war) then how exactly does Sinclair profit? (Remember ADAM became 'the currency' during the terrorist upheaval ...) And he is supposed to build "The Sinclair Deluxe" DURING that civil war ???? So that situation would be really from an EARLIER economic distress, to cause that low income housing opportunity/redevelopment - Hardly something done DURING the civil war's chaos/disruptions. Basic Economics - A 'Run on a Bank' does NOT devalue money - there just isn't enough of it for common transactions, which stop/slowsdown the economy, causing bankruptcies IF business conventions continue to be enforced (those who expected payments on mortgages/loans start to seize 'security', or the breaking of contracts, which cascades indirectly into much of the economy). Confidence in the system, where (re)payments are assumed to be honored or people just being normally paid, is what is lost. That is WHEN Normal rules and expectations still apply. * 1929 was a huge margin-based credit bubble which *CRASHED* because of the Stock Market (a huge mass of investment loans there were unsecured). People/Banks might be stupid enough to invest that way in Rapture again, but it is more "a tempest in a teapot" in a market place as small as Rapture (20K-40K people). The 1959 "Bank Run" is more likely one made by fearful people grabbing money to go buy Plasmids/Weapons to defend themselves (and then the banks quickly not having enough CASH to cover all the withdrawls - which when people hear of it, THEY rush to get their money out too). - It looks like Prentis Mill killed himself after that previous (1952 ?) economic readjustment - sometime after his Railroad went bankrupt (replaced supposedly by a comprehensive Bathyspheres/Metro Transit system - METRO taking over transit in Rapture -- AGAIN not really likely to happen during the Civil War, and with all the Bathyspheres supposedly "locked Down"). SO THAT particular "Rapture Bank Crash", mentioned by Mill, was NOT after the Kashmir Incident, and whatever 'Bank Run' happened to take place then. AND Prentis Mill would likely have (not being an imbicile) had much of his CASH loans secured in exchange for loaning it (By Ryan at minimum) so would likely STILL have been a very rich man (so maybe it was more the failure of his Railroad system that depressed him, and drove him to suicide). At minimum he would, at the end, hold ownership of the banks he had loaned to, and all the mortgages they had held. (This is not an equivalent of the cliche of some rich dude losing everything betting on the Stock Market, and then jumping out a skyscraper window.) - The "bombs exploding", talked about by Grace Holloway (causing "people all pulling on the same dollar"), sounds like the Kashmir Massacre (and wherever else Atlas had his terrorists attacked). Hardly time for a "Hooverville" ("City Looking down their noses at us...") to grow up, when people were being massacred in the Streets by Atlas's thugs. With order breaking down, people would just stay wherever they already lived, and 'rents' could hardly be collected or people evicted. AGAIN that particular situation mentioned in Grace's rantings would be DURING some EARLIER economic event generating large numbers of unemployed 'poor' people. AT Kashmir Massacre time, any 'Bank Run' becomes a minor thing. With Atlas's terrorists, in whole sections of the City, shooting-up/slicing-up citizens, murdering them wholesale in the streets, destroying infrastructure, AND with Citizens then fighting Atlas's followers -- a war --- THAT is what disrupted the entire economy. How do you run a business when all your customers/employees are afraid to even leave their houses/apartments ? And basic necessities are the only things selling ?) Commerce comes largely to a halt. There is a cessation of wages/salaries - and it is widespread. Banks are completely out of CASH to cover any withdrawls. SO this later "Bank Run" was HARDLY the deciding factor in Rapture's later (final ?) economic collapse. The game's plot is very Vague about how fast this all happened -- either quickly, OR taking more time (time for the money panic to settle down or to become irrelevant). One Big Economic mess, and EVERYBODY is poor, and THEY ALL don't care about some 'Have-Nots "protesting"'. The Majority of Citizens are more concerned with their own Safety and Survival. Ryan may not have declared Martial Law quickly (did he even have Security Forces big enough/equipped to do much ?), and HE saw The Citizens as the Proper agency to eradicate the terrorists/anarchists. Power hungry Fontaine/Atlas using ADAM mutants to cause chaos. A climate of destruction and murder is the deciding factor in Rapture's decline, and Ryan's death sealed it. SO NOT not some 'Bank Run', which was a sideeffect, instead of a 'cause'. --- --- --- That Blamed Excuse of a 'Stock Market' "Crash" (BUNK) ''' : Rapture would have had more of a 'company share' market, used for the few large companies and maybe some smaller companies. Mortgage properties don't go away. Market Speculation simply WOULD NOT have been on the scale/pervasiveness of America 1920's ... (the speculative bubble fed from across a country - surely the people in Rapture would remember that - and MANY lived through it to be leery of taking part in it again). Only small losses to volatility, not 'Crash' (so a Stock Market WASN'T the activator). There has to be a 'Panic' leading to money disappearing as overpriced stocks dropped to nothing. "Ponzi scheme" was already an 'understood' concept, as was that of a 'speculation bubble'. The Overproduction which fueled the 1929 Crash wasn't quite as likely in a 'money up front' economy like Rapture's would need to be. Excess production overall wouldn't happen much, as the market was so small. It wasn't like there was some REST of the country 'out there' with 20X the population ready to buy stuff *AND* investment money from 'out there' pouring into the big city centers of speculation.) Banks wouldn't lend money like they once did for speculation. - New York City, which Rapture appears cosmetically modeled after, was actually an almost unique economic place in America. Rapture though ISN'T (and cannot be) the same situation, so similar 'crash' dynamics just would not apply. ---- . . . . . . . . . "Stock Market Crash", not quite the same environment in Rapture(~1952) as there was in 1929. Too small a economic system for the same effect, or for 'Stocks' to work the same way (Many fewer big companies exist which for which it was worth issuing 'Stock'). . . . . . . . . . With ~20000 people in Rapture, the 'Stock Exchange' could only be so large (and the impact on any economy thus likewise small). ---- '''Did the 'Crash' Happened In Rapture "1952", or was it after New Years 1959 ?? : This is all assuming there WAS much of a 'Stock Market' to 'crash', and bring a SUDDEN EXTREME shift in Rapture's Financing climate - See Rapture_Economy Rapture's Crash talked about in the games story was NOT after the Kashmir Massacre. It would have been several years earlier. * It would not happen during the time of Raptures Primary Building period (1946-51). People were still moving in, and there would be little market to 'Crash'. Money/resources are being massively infused from the outside. * It was NOT during Rapture's 'Civil War' (Terrorist Chaos). As everything started going chaotic, and any 'Market' would be the least of anyone's worries at that time. * BaS (1958) didn't exactly paint Rapture like it was in the middle of some Doom&Gloom of a Depression situation existing. * There was a convergence of several factors that could lead to significant economic distress around 1952 : ** The end of Primary Construction, when some significant segment of the workforce lost their jobs and needed to find other work. ** The Closing-off of the City from the Surface, which may have panicked/disrupted things somewhat ** Due to the Consolidation of the Metro (Trolleys and High End Bathyspheres) - redundancy eliminated ** The AE Bankruptcy - Ending most Passenger service and Switching to Freight operations (RR the largest industry in Rapture) --- --- --- A Later Economic Distress ? : The Kashmir Incident caused another 'run on the banks', but after that with the escalating Splicer violence and a Civil War, it was decidedly not the most healthy environment for alot of businesses anyway. Money apparently kept much of its value (or how else could Sinclair and others SELL things (weapons, ammo, Plasmids) and 'make big profits' -- if the money no longer had value?? Even in BS2 times, money (Rapture Dollars) are still in use (Lamb's zombies would otherwise have burned anything with Ryan's picture on it ...). During the 'civil war', Ryan managed to keep an economy running and people working (and were paid) and he kept them supplied (kept the food production going and the power on). His untimely death ended most chances of any significant economic revival as the City broke into conflicting factional territories, and left the desperate populace vulnerable to people like Sofia Lamb. ---- ---- Historic Situation the BS2 Writers Were Attempting To Allude To : . . . . . . . Naming these places "Hoovervilles' (Grace Holloway invokes the term in BS2) was a democrat/socialist smear against President Hoover. BUT years later, when the 'Great Depression' got/was-made far worse under Roosevelt (Four times as many people were out of work under Roosevelt as Hoover), these shantytown places SHOULD have been renamed ROOSEVELTVILLEs. A fact is : Some still existed right up to the Start of WW2 - the War was the Actual Thing that ENDED the Roosevelt Depression, instead of any of the socialist actions/policies (many of them found unConstitutional) which the democrats subjected America to. ---- ---- . .